The Inevitable Exodus Back To UMNO/BN
We are now almost mid-way between the 2008 12th GE and the constitutional date-line to hold the 13th GE. Whilst UMNO is seen as SOLID and UNITED, its senior partners in the BN ruling coalition are still consolidating, after periods of turbulance. On the other side of the political divide, DAP and PAS are held together, loosely though, by the VOLATILE PKR. Growing acceptance and popularity of Najib has already sparked off speculations that the BN may consider snap-GE.
Prior to 2008 GE, 90% of Indians were with BN. Weeks before the polling day, their loyalty to the BN was TEMPORARILY compromised by the FABRICATED rumours of ETHNIC CLEANSING against their community, and alleged SERIAL DEMOLITIONS of the Hindu temples. Only after turning their back on the BN DID they realize that BOTH were not true, and that they were duped and cheated. Since then, the Indians have drifted back to the BN, and by the latest Merdeka Centre polls, over 70% of Indians are back with the BN.
The drift back to UMNO/BN among the Malays in PKR is a bit slower, but has gained MOMENTUM after the fall of Pakatan’s ‘under the tree’ State Government. With Anwar’s own former KEY PERSONS like Ezam, Zahrain and Zulkifli Nordin are leading the BN-bound EXODUS, it would not be long before PKR will be left with Anwar, Azizah and Azmin(the notorious 3As) and a section of the Chinese, mainly English-educated, and a pool of Indian lawyers. Its too early to predict whether Khalid Ibrahim may consider calling it a day too with PKR.
The most damaging DISASTER awaiting Pakatan is the eventual parting with PAS. The situation in PAS can be described as RETAK MENANTI BELAH. In the past, PAS managed to ‘pinch’ UMNO Malay supporters with their JIHAD, SYAHID and ENJOIN GOOD AND FORBIDDING EVIL slogans. Since they have abandoned those symbols of Islamic struggle, PAS is finding it tough to attract new Malay supporters. Even their ‘battle-hardened’ rank-and-file are beginning to question every move made by their leaders They NO LONGER hold to the previously held ‘kami dengar dan kami taat’, meaning ‘we hear and we obey’ discipline.
The issue of DAP FOR SECULARISM and PAS FOR ISLAMIC STATE will inevitabily split up DAP and PAS in the run up to the 13th GE. PAS leaders , in order to remain relevant to their grass-root supporters and their ISLAMIC STATE ambitions, will be forced to revert back to their original ISLAMIC AGENDA, and wave BYE BYE to DAP.
The inevitable exodus back to UMNO/BN has begun, and is gaining momentum.