The loose coalition of PKR, DAP and PAS, known as Pakatan Rakyat(PR), are bracing themselves for the coming General Election(GE), which many observers believe would come early next year…or even earlier.
Since making major in-roads into Selangor, Perak, Kedah and Penang, besides retaining Kelantan, in 2008 General Elections, the loose coalition, apart from DAP, are fast losing their grounds for multiplicity of reasons. Defections by 2 PKR and 1 DAP state assemblymen in Perak saw the fall-back of Perak State Government to the BN. This was followed by series of defections by PKR state assemblymen and MPs, and exodus of their key leaders and members to the fold of the BN. The ‘explosive’ and ‘lawless’ PKR party elections late last year led to further EXODUS of leaders and members alike from the party…even leading to the formation of a splinter party named KITA led by Zaid Ibrahim, former party Central Committee member, and Deputy Presidential candidate.
PAS has been showing more disciplined posture, but their abandoning of their long-held ISLAMIC STATE and HUDUD LAWS objectives are subject of much debates among their rank-and-file. By opting for for ‘ala-socialist’ Negara Berkebajikan, literally means ‘Welfare State’, PAS are hopeful that they will be able to garner more support from non-Malays/non-Muslims. However PAS may have overlooked the diminishing support of Malays/Bumiputras by such moves. To certain political observers, PAS’s moves were like ‘terdengar guruh di langit, air tempayan dicurahkan’, meaning, ‘upon listening the thunder, water in the vessel is poured out’.
Without careful preparation, its not impossible that PR’s 2008 ‘tsunamic’ gains would be turned into their ‘catastrophic’ defeats in the coming GE.
Judging from the trends of voting among the Chinese, who makes up almost 30% of total electorates nation-wide, it is fair to conclude that it was NOT the Chinese votes which triggered major inroads by the Pakatan in Selangor, Perak, Kedah and Penang in the 2008 GE. Since the debut of DAP in 1969, majority of Chinese voters were known to have consistently voted for DAP, instead of the BN-aligned MCA. Hence, DAP’s TRADITIONAL better showing in overwhelmingly Chinese urban constituencies like Bukit Bintang, Seputeh, Kepong, Ipoh, Batu Gajah etc.
Infact, it was the Indian voters who made up nearly 10% of the electorates which made the difference. Prior to 2008, over 90% of Indian voters were known to be loyal supporters of the BN. However, a few weeks before the 2008 GE, the Indians were STIRRED UP by fabricated rumours drummed up by members of the banned Hindu Rights Action Force(HINDRAF) that the Indians in the country were subjected to ETHNIC CLEANSING by UMNO elements, and that Hindu temples were demolished by UMNO elements too at a rate of one in every few days. STIRRED UP by the rumours, tens of thousands of Indians were driven to the streets of KL to air their anguish and anger. Although the rumours were all unfounded and FABRICATED, it was enough to sway over 90% of Indian voters against the BN in the GE, and became the MOST SIGNIFICANT factor in the Pakatan gains.
However, TRUTH PREVAILS. Within months of the 2008 GE, the Indians came to their senses. They came to realize that there were no ethnic cleansing perpetrated againsts them, and no Hindu temples were demolished. How could such rumours be true when thousands of Indians nationals are arriving at out KLIA day-in-day-out for jobs and new opportunities. They began to realize that their long-held loyalty to the BN were compromised for a wrong cause. Both DAP and PKR did not show much appreciation for the ‘sacrifices’ of the Indians, while their leaders were marginalised in their respective party elections. Across the spectrum, PAS remains reluctant to accept non-Muslims as full-fledged members, despite their empty slogan of ‘PAS For All’.
With Samy Vellu’s resignation as the President of MIC, the party is on road to recovery, and will again be UMBRELLA PARTY of the Indians, besides other BN-friendly Indian-based parties like Parti Makkal Sakti, a registered breakaway of HINDRAF, and KIMMA, the Indian-Muslims-based NGO, and several others. From the results of the last few bye-elections, the trends of voting among the Indians clearly indicated that over 70% of them are back to the warm embrace of the BN, and by the coming GE, the level of support among the Indians towards the BN is expected to be back at 90% level. With the support among Malays/Bumiputras has increased to over 70%, BN is looking forward to regain most of the grounds it lost in 2008 GE.
Apart from DAP who made inroads in urban-Chinese majority areas in recent Sarawak State Elections, the future of both PKR and PAS are UNCERTAIN. They are fully aware that overwhelming majority of Malays/Bumiputras will not be fooled by them again. They are fully aware that the Indian voters have had enough of them too. As a result, both PKR and PAS are becoming more and more dependent on Chinese votes….and their leaders are seen more and more as RUNNING DOGS of DAP.
The DECLINE of PAS culminated in the election of STREET DEMONSTRATION EXPERT Mat Sabu as their Deputy President in their recently concluded General Assembly. Paradoxically, it’s widely believed that it was Mat Sabu who first added the name ‘Al-Juburi’ to Anwar Ibrahim, while Anwar was still in UMNO. The term Anwar Al-Juburi literally means Anwar ‘the sodomiser’. To make matters worse, Mat Sabu himself was involved in a Khalwat case in a Kota Bharu Hotel…only saved by the interference of Nik Aziz.
At the moment, both PKR and PAS are at their lowest ever level of support among the Malays/Bumiputras and Indians. Its not surprising that when the fame-seeking Ambiga initiated certain NGOs to ‘replay’ the BERSIH demonstration, both PKR and PAS are grabbing the opportunity to re-kindle their DIMMING FLAMES. To prove his WORTHINESS after being elected PAS Deputy President, Mat Sabu is reported to have pledged 300,000 participants from among PAS members for the planned BERSIH2 rally.
BERSIH2 is nothing but an exercise by both PKR and PAS to gauge how much support they have lost over the period of three over years after the 2008 GE. They most likely will be shocked by what they’ll find out…